225 hasil untuk "Lessler, Justin"
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Preprint Teks lengkap
Generative diffusion models for spatiotemporal influenza forecasting
Forecasting infectious disease incidence can provide important information to guide public health planning, yet is difficult because epidemic dynamics are complex. Current mechanistic and statistical approaches often struggle to capture multimodal uncertainty or emergent trends. Influpaint adapts…
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Artikel Jurnal Teks lengkap
The 1918 Influenza Pandemic: Looking Back, Looking Forward
In commemoration of the centennial of the 1918 influenza pandemic, the American Journal of Epidemiology has convened a collection of 12 articles that further illuminate the epidemiology of that pandemic and consider whether we would be more prepared if an equally deadly influenza virus were to…
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Artikel Jurnal Teks lengkap
Reactive vaccination in the presence of disease hotspots
Reactive vaccination has recently been adopted as an outbreak response tool for cholera and other infectious diseases. Owing to the global shortage of oral cholera vaccine, health officials must quickly decide who and where to distribute limited vaccine. Targeted vaccination in transmission…
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Artikel Jurnal Teks lengkap
Optimal allocation of the limited oral cholera vaccine supply between endemic and epidemic settings
The World Health Organization (WHO) recently established a global stockpile of oral cholera vaccine (OCV) to be preferentially used in epidemic response (reactive campaigns) with any vaccine remaining after 1 year allocated to endemic settings. Hence, the number of cholera cases or deaths prevented…
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Artikel Jurnal Teks lengkap
What Now? Epidemiology in the Wake of a Pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic and the coming transition to a post-pandemic world where COVID-19 will likely remain as an incident disease present a host of challenges and opportunities in epidemiologic research. The scale and universality of this disruption to life and health provide unique opportunities…
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Artikel Jurnal Teks lengkap
Balancing Evidence and Uncertainty when Considering Rubella Vaccine Introduction
BACKGROUND: Despite a safe and effective vaccine, rubella vaccination programs with inadequate coverage can raise the average age of rubella infection; thereby increasing rubella cases among pregnant women and the resulting congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) in their newborns. The vaccination…
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Artikel Jurnal Teks lengkap
Mechanistic Models of Infectious Disease and Their Impact on Public Health
From the 1930s through the 1940s, Lowell Reed and Wade Hampton Frost used mathematical models and mechanical epidemic simulators as research tools and to teach epidemic theory to students at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health (then the School of Hygiene and Public Health). Since…
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Artikel Jurnal Teks lengkap
Opportunities and Challenges in Modeling Emerging Infectious Diseases
The term ‘pathogen emergence’ encompasses everything from novel viruses entering the human population to established pathogens invading new populations, to the evolution of drug resistance. Mathematical models of emergent pathogens allow forecasts of case numbers, investigation of transmission…
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Artikel Jurnal Teks lengkap
Performance and Priorities: A Cross-sectional Study of Local Health Department Approaches to Essential Public Health Services
OBJECTIVES: Despite a push for increased local public health capacity, no clear baseline for performance of local health departments (LHDs) exists. The objectives of this study were to quantify the self-reported performance of LHDs on the 10 Essential Public Health Services (EPHSs) and describe the…
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Artikel Jurnal Teks lengkap
Influenza outbreak control practices and the effectiveness of interventions in long-term care facilities: a systematic review
BACKGROUND: Evaluation of influenza control measures frequently focuses on the efficacy of chemoprophylaxis and vaccination, while the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) receives less emphasis. While influenza control measures are frequently reported for individual outbreaks…
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Artikel Jurnal Teks lengkap
Propensity score estimation: machine learning and classification methods as alternatives to logistic regression
OBJECTIVE: Propensity scores for the analysis of observational data are typically estimated using logistic regression. Our objective in this Review was to assess machine learning alternatives to logistic regression which may accomplish the same goals but with fewer assumptions or greater accuracy…
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Artikel Jurnal Teks lengkap
Analysis of Vaccine Effectiveness Against COVID-19 and the Emergence of Delta and Other Variants of Concern in Utah
This cross-sectional study analyzes the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against Delta and other variants in Utah.
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Artikel Jurnal Teks lengkap
Sample size calculation for phylogenetic case linkage
Sample size calculations are an essential component of the design and evaluation of scientific studies. However, there is a lack of clear guidance for determining the sample size needed for phylogenetic studies, which are becoming an essential part of studying pathogen transmission. We introduce a…
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Artikel Jurnal Teks lengkap
Evaluating the Effect of Public Health and Social Measures Under Rapid Changes in Population-level Immunity Against SARS-CoV-2: A Mathematical Modeling Study
BACKGROUND: Public health and social measures are crucial for controlling the spread of pathogens. However, well-tailored assessments of their impact remain elusive, particularly considering time-varying immunity established from prior exposures and its waning. METHODS: We developed a mathematical…
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Artikel Jurnal Teks lengkap
Power and sample size calculations for testing the ratio of reproductive values in phylogenetic samples
The quality of the inferences we make from pathogen sequence data is determined by the number and composition of pathogen sequences that make up the sample used to drive that inference. However, there remains limited guidance on how to best structure and power studies when the end goal is…
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Artikel Jurnal Teks lengkap
Improving propensity score weighting using machine learning
Machine learning techniques such as classification and regression trees (CART) have been suggested as promising alternatives to logistic regression for the estimation of propensity scores. The authors examined the performance of various CART-based propensity score models using simulated data…
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Artikel Jurnal Teks lengkap
Weight Trimming and Propensity Score Weighting
Propensity score weighting is sensitive to model misspecification and outlying weights that can unduly influence results. The authors investigated whether trimming large weights downward can improve the performance of propensity score weighting and whether the benefits of trimming differ by…
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Artikel Jurnal Teks lengkap
Quantifying Zika: Advancing the Epidemiology of Zika With Quantitative Models
When Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in the Americas, little was known about its biology, pathogenesis, and transmission potential, and the scope of the epidemic was largely hidden, owing to generally mild infections and no established surveillance systems. Surges in congenital defects and Guillain-Barré…
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Artikel Jurnal Teks lengkap
Estimating infectious disease transmission distances using the overall distribution of cases
The average spatial distance between transmission-linked cases is a fundamental property of infectious disease dispersal. However, the distance between a case and their infector is rarely measurable. Contact-tracing investigations are resource intensive or even impossible, particularly when only a…