136 hasil untuk "Neil M Ferguson"
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Evaluating the adequacy of gravity models as a description of human mobility for epidemic modelling.
Gravity models have a long history of use in describing and forecasting the movements of people as well as goods and services, making them a natural basis for disease transmission rates over distance. In agent-based micro-simulations, gravity models can be directly used to represent movement of…
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Deriving fine-scale models of human mobility from aggregated origin-destination flow data.
The spatial dynamics of epidemics are fundamentally affected by patterns of human mobility. Mobile phone call detail records (CDRs) are a rich source of mobility data, and allow semi-mechanistic models of movement to be parameterised even for resource-poor settings. While the gravity model…
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Antigenic diversity, transmission mechanisms, and the evolution of pathogens.
Pathogens have evolved diverse strategies to maximize their transmission fitness. Here we investigate these strategies for directly transmitted pathogens using mathematical models of disease pathogenesis and transmission, modeling fitness as a function of within- and between-host pathogen dynamics…
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Targeting vaccinations for the licensed dengue vaccine: Considerations for serosurvey design.
BackgroundThe CYD-TDV vaccine was unusual in that the recommended target population for vaccination was originally defined not only by age, but also by transmission setting as defined by seroprevalence. WHO originally recommended countries consider vaccination against dengue with CYD-TDV vaccine in…
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Feature selection methods for identifying genetic determinants of host species in RNA viruses.
Despite environmental, social and ecological dependencies, emergence of zoonotic viruses in human populations is clearly also affected by genetic factors which determine cross-species transmission potential. RNA viruses pose an interesting case study given their mutation rates are orders of…
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A many-body field theory approach to stochastic models in population biology.
Many models used in theoretical ecology, or mathematical epidemiology are stochastic, and may also be spatially-explicit. Techniques from quantum field theory have been used before in reaction-diffusion systems, principally to investigate their critical behavior. Here we argue that they make many…
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Transmission parameters of the 2001 foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain.
Despite intensive ongoing research, key aspects of the spatial-temporal evolution of the 2001 foot and mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in Great Britain (GB) remain unexplained. Here we develop a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for estimating epidemiological parameters of the 2001 outbreak for a…
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Epidemic and intervention modelling: a scientific rationale for policy decisions? Lessons from the 2009 influenza pandemic
PROBLEM: Outbreak analysis and mathematical modelling are crucial for planning public health responses to infectious disease outbreaks, epidemics and pandemics. This paper describes the data analysis and mathematical modelling undertaken during and following the 2009 influenza pandemic, especially…
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A trade-off between dry season survival longevity and wet season high net reproduction can explain the persistence of Anopheles mosquitoes
Abstract Background Plasmodium falciparum malaria remains a leading cause of death in tropical regions of the world. Despite efforts to reduce transmission, rebounds associated with the persistence of malaria vectors have remained a major impediment to local elimination. One area that remains…
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Estimating air temperature and its influence on malaria transmission across Africa.
Malaria transmission is strongly influenced by climatic conditions which determine the abundance and seasonal dynamics of the Anopheles vector. In particular, water temperature influences larval development rates whereas air temperature determines adult longevity as well as the rate of parasite…
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Systematic selection between age and household structure for models aimed at emerging epidemic predictions
Models of emerging epidemics can be exceedingly helpful in planning the response, but early on model selection is a difficult task. Here, the authors explore the joint contribution of age stratification and household structure on epidemic spread, and provides a rule of thumb to guide model choice.
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Artikel Jurnal Teks lengkap
Modelling the impact of antiretroviral use in resource-poor settings.
BACKGROUND: The anticipated scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in high-prevalence, resource-constrained settings requires operational research to guide policy on the design of treatment programmes. Mathematical models can explore the potential impacts of various treatment strategies…
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Frequent Travelers and Rate of Spread of Epidemics
A small proportion of air travelers make disproportionately more journeys than the rest of travelers. They also tend to interact predominantly with other frequent travelers in hotels and airport lounges. This group has the potential to accelerate global spread of infectious respiratory diseases…