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Econometrica
Scopus
ISSN 0012-9682 · Wiley · 19 artikel di indeks
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RCTs to Scale: Comprehensive Evidence From Two Nudge Units
Nudge interventions have quickly expanded from academic studies to larger implementation in so‐called Nudge Units in governments. This provides an opportunity to compare interventions in research studies, versus at scale. We assemble a unique data set of 126 RCTs covering 23 million individuals…
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Misallocation, Selection, and Productivity: A Quantitative Analysis With Panel Data From China
We use household‐level panel data from China and a quantitative framework to document the extent and consequences of factor misallocation in agriculture. We find that there are substantial within‐village frictions in both the land and capital markets linked to land institutions in rural China that…
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Tasks, Automation, and the Rise in U.S. Wage Inequality
We document that between 50% and 70% of changes in the U.S. wage structure over the last four decades are accounted for by relative wage declines of worker groups specialized in routine tasks in industries experiencing rapid automation. We develop a conceptual framework where tasks across…
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Banks, Liquidity Management, and Monetary Policy
We develop a tractable model of banks' liquidity management with an over‐the‐counter interbank market to study the credit channel of monetary policy. Deposits circulate randomly across banks and must be settled with reserves. We show how monetary policy affects the banking system by altering the…
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Policy Learning With Observational Data
In many areas, practitioners seek to use observational data to learn a treatment assignment policy that satisfies application‐specific constraints, such as budget, fairness, simplicity, or other functional form constraints. For example, policies may be restricted to take the form of decision trees…
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What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal About Lifecycle Earnings Dynamics?
We study individual male earnings dynamics over the life cycle using panel data on millions of U.S. workers. Using nonparametric methods, we first show that the distribution of earnings changes exhibits substantial deviations from lognormality, such as negative skewness and very high kurtosis…
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Local Projection Inference Is Simpler and More Robust Than You Think
Applied macroeconomists often compute confidence intervals for impulse responses using local projections, that is, direct linear regressions of future outcomes on current covariates. This paper proves that local projection inference robustly handles two issues that commonly arise in applications…
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Deep Neural Networks for Estimation and Inference
We study deep neural networks and their use in semiparametric inference. We establish novel nonasymptotic high probability bounds for deep feedforward neural nets. These deliver rates of convergence that are sufficiently fast (in some cases minimax optimal) to allow us to establish valid…
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Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses
We prove that local projections (LPs) and Vector Autoregressions (VARs) estimate the same impulse responses. This nonparametric result only requires unrestricted lag structures. We discuss several implications: (i) LP and VAR estimators are not conceptually separate procedures; instead, they are…
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Micro Data and Macro Technology
We develop a framework to estimate the aggregate capital‐labor elasticity of substitution by aggregating the actions of individual plants. The aggregate elasticity reflects substitution within plants and reallocation across plants; the extent of heterogeneity in capital intensities determines their…
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Frontier Culture: The Roots and Persistence of “Rugged Individualism” in the United States
The presence of a westward‐moving frontier of settlement shaped early U.S. history. In 1893, the historian Frederick Jackson Turner famously argued that the American frontier fostered individualism. We investigate the “frontier thesis” and identify its long‐run implications for culture and…
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Age of Marriage, Weather Shocks, and the Direction of Marriage Payments
We study how aggregate economic conditions affect the timing of marriage, and particularly child marriage, in Sub‐Saharan Africa and in India. In both regions, substantial monetary or in‐kind transfers occur with marriage: bride price across Sub‐Saharan Africa and dowry in India. In a simple…
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Social Media and Protest Participation: Evidence From Russia
Do new communication technologies, such as social media, alleviate the collective action problem? This paper provides evidence that penetration of VK, the dominant Russian online social network, led to more protest activity during a wave of protests in Russia in 2011. As a source of exogenous…
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On the Geography of Global Value Chains
This paper develops a multi‐stage general‐equilibrium model of global value chains (GVCs) and studies the specialization of countries within GVCs in a world with barriers to international trade. With costly trade, the optimal location of production of a given stage in a GVC is not only a function…
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Sampling‐Based versus Design‐Based Uncertainty in Regression Analysis
Consider a researcher estimating the parameters of a regression function based on data for all 50 states in the United States or on data for all visits to a website. What is the interpretation of the estimated parameters and the standard errors? In practice, researchers typically assume that the…
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Financial Heterogeneity and the Investment Channel of Monetary Policy
We study the role of financial frictions and firm heterogeneity in determining the investment channel of monetary policy. Empirically, we find that firms with low default risk—those with low debt burdens and high “distance to default”— are the most responsive to monetary shocks. We interpret these…
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Heterogeneous Markups, Growth, and Endogenous Misallocation
Markups vary systematically across firms and are a source of misallocation. This paper develops a tractable model of firm dynamics where firms' market power is endogenous and the distribution of markups emerges as an equilibrium outcome. Monopoly power is the result of a process of forward‐looking…
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Endogenous Production Networks
We develop a tractable model of endogenous production networks. Each one of a number of products can be produced by combining labor and an endogenous subset of the other products as inputs. Different combinations of inputs generate (prespecified) levels of productivity and various distortions may…
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Labor Share Decline and Intellectual Property Products Capital
We study the behavior of the U.S. labor share over the past 90 years. We find that the observed decline of the labor share is entirely explained by the capitalization of intellectual property products in the national income and product accounts.