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Atmospheric Science Letters
Scopus
ISSN 1530-261X · Wiley · 384 artikel di indeks
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Artikel Jurnal
Robustness of the Ensemble Score Filter to the Type of Assimilated Observation Networks
ABSTRACT Recent advances in data assimilation (DA) have focused on developing more flexible approaches that can better accommodate nonlinearities in models and observations. However, it remains unclear how the performance of these advanced methods depends on the observation network characteristics…
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Evaluation of Precipitation Observations Across Ecuador
ABSTRACT Accurate precipitation observations are crucial for hydrological and climate monitoring, forecasting and research. However, sparse networks in regions with complex topography, like Ecuador, limit data availability. To address this gap, products such as ERA5 reanalysis, produced by ECMWF…
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Detectable Human Influence on Reduced Day‐to‐Day Temperature Variability in the Cold Season Driven by Arctic Sea‐Ice Loss
ABSTRACT Climate models agree that a reduction of day‐to‐day temperature variability at mid‐to‐high latitudes during the cold season is a robust forced response to anthropogenic global warming. Although recent observations show a similar reduction, how much the observed change is forced and how…
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Cold Pools Reduce the Impacts of Deforestation on Convection Initiation
ABSTRACT The individual and synergistic impacts of cold pools and land surface heterogeneity on convection initiation are investigated. Idealized large eddy simulations of deep convection over the Amazon rainforest are conducted. Simulations test realistic and homogenized vegetation, along with…
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Exploring Clear‐Sky Longwave Radiative Closure in the Arctic: A Downwelling Case Study
ABSTRACT The far infrared region plays a critical role in the Earth's greenhouse effect. Measurements across this range are limited and previous studies have found it challenging to achieve radiative closure between different instruments across the mid‐far infrared. This study compares…
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Artikel Jurnal
Capturing Extreme Water Vapor and Instability With High‐Resolution GNSS Monitoring
ABSTRACT This study utilized data from a high‐resolution Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) network with a horizontal spacing of less than 10 km, including stations operated by private companies, to analyze the horizontal and vertical distributions of water vapor during a sustained heavy…
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Artikel Jurnal
Prediction of European Winter 2023/24: Influence of a Strong El Niño
ABSTRACT UK winter 2023/24 had a particularly stormy start, similar to 2015/16, another strong El Niño winter. Successfully predicted by the Met Office seasonal forecast system, this increased early‐winter storminess was associated with lower‐than‐average surface pressure to the west of the UK…
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Artikel Jurnal
Seasonal Predictions of the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation: Variability, Forecast Skill and the Signal‐to‐Noise Paradox in a Large Ensemble
ABSTRACT We investigate the variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the Met Office Global Seasonal Forecasting System (GloSea) using a 132‐member ensemble of coupled model forecasts, which is larger than has previously been available. Consistent with previous studies, we find that…
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Long‐Range Dependence, Multifractality, and Trends of Drought Across Multiple Accumulation Periods in Türkiye Derived From SPEI
ABSTRACT Drought is a scale‐dependent, memory‐driven process, yet its temporal persistence and complexity remain poorly understood relative to its intensity and frequency. This study presents an integrated, scale‐aware assessment of drought dynamics across Türkiye using the Standardized…
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Mediterranean Warming Amplified the Convective Environment During the December 13, 2024 Severe Thunderstorm at Rome–Fiumicino Airport
ABSTRACT Extreme convective events are posing increasing challenge to aviation. On December 13, 2024, an intense thunderstorm caused severe operational disruption at Rome–Fiumicino Airport. Here we analyze the dynamic and thermodynamic conditions associated with this event using a conditional…
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Artikel Jurnal
Variability of Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Bay of Bengal Across the Phase Space of the Madden–Julian Oscillation
ABSTRACT In this study, probabilities of tropical cyclogenesis in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) were analyzed across the full two‐dimensional phase space of the real‐time multivariate Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) (RMM) index for pre‐ and post‐monsoon periods from 1990 to 2025. Results show that…
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Observation Impact of Moored Buoys in the Eastern Tropical Indian Ocean During Boreal Winter Using Ensemble‐Based Forecast Sensitivity to Observations
ABSTRACT Understanding the impact of marine meteorological observations is crucial for improving atmospheric analyzes, particularly in data‐sparse oceanic regions. This study investigated the impact of marine meteorological observations on atmospheric forecasts over the eastern tropical Indian…
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Possible Mechanism for the Record‐Breaking Cold Event Over Northeastern China in December 2023: Role of Extreme Negative North Atlantic Oscillation
ABSTRACT In early winter of 2023 (December 9th–23rd), a record‐breaking cold event hits northeastern China (NEC), resulting in serious economic losses and significant disruptions to daily life. Our analysis suggests that this cold event is attributed to the preceding extreme negative phase of the…
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Artikel Jurnal
Three‐Year Characterization of Boundary Layer Dynamics From GNSS Zenith Wet Delay Spectral Analysis
ABSTRACT Continuous monitoring of boundary layer turbulence remains a challenge due to sparse conventional instrumentation. Here we suggest that spectral analysis of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) zenith wet delay (ZWD) fluctuations yields physically meaningful diagnostics of boundary…
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Historical Increase in Hourly Heavy Precipitation Across Japan and Its Attribution to Anthropogenic Climate Warming
ABSTRACT Recent observational and modeling studies highlight the growing global impacts of heavy precipitation. Although daily extremes have been widely studied, short‐duration precipitation events that often result in pluvial floods have received less attention. This study analyzes historical…
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Artikel Jurnal
Interdecadal Change in Summer Extreme Rainfall Over North China Around the Early 2000s: Drivers and Mechanisms
ABSTRACT Recent increases in summer extreme rainfall over North China pose growing societal risks, yet their long‐term evolution and governing mechanisms remain poorly understood. Systematic analysis of observations from 1979 to 2021 reveals a discernible interdecadal change in extreme rainfall…
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The Multiscale Non‐Gaussian Statistics of Free‐Running 1000‐Member General Circulation Model Ensembles
ABSTRACT Probabilistic atmospheric forecasts are useful for disaster management and a variety of socioeconomic activities. One avenue to improve these forecasts is through advancing our understanding of forecast distributions. This study advances that understanding through a multiscale…
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Artikel Jurnal
A Deep Learning Model for Decadal Indian Ocean Dipole
ABSTRACT The rapid and unprecedented warming of the Indian Ocean intensifies climate risks across socio‐economically vulnerable regions, highlighting the need of accurate prediction over the coming decade. This study first assesses the decadal predictability of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) using…
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Artikel Jurnal
An Index to Characterize the South Indian Ocean High‐Pressure System and Its Variability
ABSTRACT The South Indian Ocean High‐Pressure (SIOHP) system strongly influences regional climate and oceanic circulation, yet a comprehensive index of its variability is lacking. We extend an earlier methodology for subtropical highs to develop an index of SIOHP intensity and position and describe…
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Artikel Jurnal
How Well Is the Lake‐Land Breeze Circulation of Lake Victoria Captured in ECMWF Operational Analysis?
ABSTRACT Lake‐breeze fronts (LBFs) are important drivers of cloudiness, deep moist convection, and heavy precipitation around large tropical lakes, yet their representation in global forecast systems remains poorly understood. This study evaluates the ability of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting…