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Earth System Dynamics
Scopus
ISSN 2190-4979 · Copernicus Publications · 918 artikel di indeks
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Setting up the physical principles of resilience in a model of the Earth System
Resilience is a property of social, ecological, social-ecological and biophysical systems. It describes the capacity of a system to cope with, adapt to and innovate in response to a changing surrounding. Given the current climate change crisis, ensuring conditions for a sustainable future for the…
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Extreme events in the Amazon after deforestation
Potential self-perpetuating dieback of the Amazon rain forest has been a topic of concern. The concern is that initial deforestation could critically impair the forest’s water recycling capacities, further harming the remaining forest through reduced annual precipitation. Many studies have focused…
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Past, present, and future variability of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in CMIP6 ensembles
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key component of the climate system, exhibiting strong variability across daily to millennial timescales and significantly influencing global climate. Sensitive to external conditions such as freshwater input, greenhouse gas…
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Dynamical system metrics and weather regimes explain the seasonally-varying link between European heatwaves and the large-scale atmospheric circulation
Global warming is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves in the extended summer period. To better predict heat extremes, it is important to explore the seasonal variations in their drivers. Therefore, we analyze heatwaves in Central Europe using ERA5 reanalysis data over the…
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An EOF-Based Emulator of Means and Covariances of Monthly Climate Fields
Fast emulators of comprehensive climate models are often used to explore the impact of anthropogenic emissions on future climate. A new approach to emulators is introduced that generates means and covariances of monthly averaged climate variables as a function of global mean surface temperature…
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Challenges and opportunities for understanding societal impacts of climate extremes
Climate extremes exact a heavy toll on society, with adverse impacts unequally distributed across populations. In this perspective, we outline key challenges and opportunities for advancing research on understanding societal impacts of climate extremes. We identify three key challenges: limited…
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A global perspective on past and future change in regional seasonal cycle shape
Ever-worsening climate change increases near-surface air temperatures for almost the entire Earth and threatens living organisms and human society. While annual mean changes are frequently used to quantify past and expected future changes, the increase is rarely uniform throughout the year. In…
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Ocean dynamics amplify remote warming effects of reforestation
Forestation, including reforestation, afforestation, and forest restoration, is prevalent in net-zero climate strategies due to the large carbon sequestration potential of forests. In addition to capturing carbon, forestation has biogeophysical effects that can influence surface temperatures…
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Reduction of uncertainty in near-term climate forecast by combining observations and decadal predictions
The implementation of adaptation policies requires seamless relevant information about near-term climate evolution, which remains highly uncertain due to the strong influence of internal variability. The recent development of approaches to improve near-term climate information by selecting members…
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Regional contrasts of ecosystem productivity sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 growth across East Asia
Elevated global atmospheric CO2 intensifies the complexity of climate variability and ecosystem productivity, and its impact on the terrestrial carbon cycle remains unclear. Using twelve Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) in Trends in land carbon cycle datasets and Global Carbon Budget…
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Everyday weather in a warmer world
How would the weather of a year from history be experienced in a warmer world? We reconstruct the weather of 1903 using a reanalysis system that assimilates only surface pressure observations (20CRv3) with observed SSTs, and then reconstruct it again with increased SSTs and atmospheric CO2 levels…
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Assessing Earth system responses in mitigation scenarios with activity-driven simulation of carbon dioxide removal
Assessing Earth system responses arising from carbon dioxide removal (CDR) requires developing and simulating pairs of scenarios – a mitigation scenario with deployment of CDR and a corresponding no-CDR baseline. The latter describes a world where no CDR is deployed, such that net carbon emissions…
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Ensemble simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum marine biogeochemistry and atmospheric pCO2 drawdown due to the soft-tissue biological carbon pump
During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), atmospheric pCO2 was approximately 90 ppm lower than in the pre-industrial era. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain this difference, including changes in nutrient supply, increased iron input to the ocean, reduced air-sea gas exchange due to…
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Regional impacts of irrigation on the atmospheric and terrestrial water cycle of the Iberian Peninsula in a climate model
This study presents regional simulations over the Iberian Peninsula between 2010 and 2022 with the atmospheric (ICOLMDZ) and land surface (ORCHIDEE) components of the IPSL climate model in a new limited area model configuration (25 km resolution). It uses a recently developed river routing and…
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Deep learning-based chlorophyll prediction: comparison with a dynamic model and applications to fish catch forecasting
Anticipating marine ecosystem changes is critical for enabling communities to adapt to climate fluctuations and for predicting future climate by considering interactions between Earth's physical and biogeochemical fields. Earth System Models (ESMs) capture large-scale physical–biogeochemical…
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Chaotic fluctuations in Greenland ice streams limit predictability of ice sheet collapse
The future evolution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) depends on the rate and intensity of climate change and can transition to a mostly ice-free state under strong enough global warming. By applying different rates of temperature change in a state-of-the-art ice-sheet model coupled to a regional…
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Assessing the impact of the Human Development Index on historical trends in the INFERNO fire model
Fire schemes within Earth System Models capture long-term historical trends in burnt area, but they struggle to reproduce the pronounced decline observed over the past two decades. This study investigates whether the observed decline in global burnt area during 1998–2016 can be better represented…
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Comparing the seasonal predictability of the Tropical Pacific variability in EC-Earth3 at two horizontal resolutions
Seasonal predictability is an active field of research given its strong potential to guide decision-making in many societal and economic sectors. In this study, we compare the predictive skill of the climate model EC-Earth3 at two different horizontal resolutions. The standard resolution – SR –…
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Quantifying resilience in non-autonomous and stochastic Earth system dynamics with application to glacial-interglacial cycles
Understanding Earth resilience – the capacity of the Earth system to absorb and regenerate from perturbations – is key to assessing risks from anthropogenic pressures and sustaining a safe operating space for humanity within planetary boundaries. Classical resilience indicators are designed for…
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Improving terrestrial carbon flux simulations with machine learning and global Earth observations
The land carbon cycle currently absorbs about one-third of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but multi-model studies project a future weakening of this sink and a possible shift to a carbon source. Large inter-model differences limit confidence in these projections, and some of these discrepancies may…