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Earth's Future
Scopus
ISSN 2328-4277 · Wiley · 1,784 articles in the index
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Journal Article
Global Warming Enhances Tropical Cyclone–Induced Extreme Precipitation in the Arabian Sea: Insights From Convection‐Permitting Model Experiments
Abstract The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events have risen with climate change, affecting multiple sectors worldwide. This study examines the influence of anthropogenic warming on intense tropical cyclones (TCs) over the Arabian Sea using convection‐permitting simulations with the…
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Journal Article
Transition in Global Basins From Precipitation‐Dominated to Evaporative Demand‐Dominated Meteorological Drought: Past Patterns and Future Projections
Abstract Meteorological drought, one of the most destructive natural hazards, is driven by both precipitation deficits and high evaporative demand. While precipitation has traditionally been considered the dominant driver, recent studies suggest an increasing influence of evaporative demand…
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Journal Article
Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Global Mountain Grasslands: Insights Into the Last Two Decades and Future Climate Scenarios
Abstract Mountain grasslands are vital ecosystems providing critical services such as carbon sequestration, water regulation, and biodiversity conservation. However, these ecosystems are increasingly threatened by climate change and human activities. This study evaluates vegetation dynamics in…
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Journal Article
Long‐Term Snow Avalanche Trends in High Mountain Asia: Climatic Drivers and Impacts
Abstract Devastating snow avalanches are frequent in High Mountain Asia (HMA) yet remain undocumented with climate change impact drivers poorly understood. Here we introduce the first record of 60 million avalanche deposits across 10,701 small catchments, compiled from 33 years of Landsat data from…
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Journal Article
Shifts in Evapotranspiration Components During Heatwaves Alter Surface Cooling
Abstract Heatwave events significantly alter ecosystem water and energy balance and are often accompanied by extreme surface temperatures. Understanding how surface temperatures during such events are regulated by soil evaporation (E) and vegetation transpiration (T) remains limited due to…
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Journal Article
Drivers of Contrasting Changes in Streamflow in the Indus and Ganga River Basins
Abstract The Indus and Ganga are the two major transboundary rivers that are lifelines for millions of people and their food security in the Indian sub‐continent. However, the observed changes in streamflow in these basins and their drivers remain poorly understood. Using in situ and satellite…
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Journal Article
Herbivore Types as a Key Driver of Spatial Variations in Aboveground Biomass Trends in Alpine Grasslands
Abstract Managing grazing regimes is a key strategy for promoting the sustainable use of grasslands. The Qinghai‐Xizang Plateau, dominated by alpine grasslands, is subjected to extensive grazing by livestock. Apart from some control experiments, the regional impact of livestock species on alpine…
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Journal Article
Expansion of Exotic Mangroves Sonneratia apetala in China Since Start of the SDGs
Abstract Since the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) came into effect in 2016, mangroves have received unprecedented attention for carbon sequestration capacity. In China, previous studies focused on the total area of mangroves using remote sensing technique, neglecting expansion of the exotic…
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Journal Article
Climate Implications of Hydrogen Deployment Considering Changes in Emissions From Direct and Indirect Forcers
Abstract Hydrogen could help to decarbonize hard‐to‐electrify end uses in future energy systems. While increased hydrogen production, transmission, distribution, and use may lead to an increase in hydrogen emissions, both greenhouse gas (GHG) and non‐GHG emissions could decline as hydrogen…
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Journal Article
Recent Tropical Cyclone Outer Size Increases in the Western North Atlantic
Abstract The outer size of a tropical cyclone (TC) plays a pivotal role in its impact through a modulation of wind duration, rainfall extent and storm surge. While global and basin scale trends in TC size have been examined previously, whether there have been regional changes over time remains…
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Journal Article
Ecological Feedbacks in the Earth System
Abstract Ecological feedbacks are fundamental features of the Earth system, affecting physical processes and chemical cycles. Our understanding of the interactions underlying these feedbacks at different spatial and temporal scales and the extent to which feedbacks affect Earth system functioning…
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Journal Article
Decoding the Temporal Effects of Climate Change on Crop Phenology: Cumulative and Lagged Impacts in China's Major Corn Zones (1990–2020)
Abstract Understanding how climatic change affects crop phenology is essential for climate adaptation and food security. However, past studies have not effectively separated the influences of anthropogenic management practices (AMP) from climate factors, leaving the actual temporal effects of…
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Journal Article
Mapping Philadelphia's Floodscape: A 35‐Year Analysis of Coastal Urban Flood Hazards and Drivers
Abstract Low‐lying coastal urban cities face significant flooding risks from river flooding (fluvial), storm surges and high tides (coastal), and intense local rainfall (pluvial). Accurately assessing these hazards requires modeling frameworks capable of capturing both the individual and combined…
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Journal Article
Increased Aerosols From Siberian Wildfires Buffered Arctic Warming During 2013–2019
Abstract During 2013–2019, global aerosols, influenced by regional clean air actions and wildfires, changed significantly. Clean air actions in China, Europe, and North America reduced anthropogenic aerosols, whereas Siberia experienced increased wildfire aerosols due to local warm and dry…
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Journal Article
An Earth System Model Ensemble Forced With Probabilistic Emissions: Demonstration and Prospects for Climate Risk Assessment
Abstract Future projections of climate change are uncertain, in part because of uncertainty in future greenhouse gas emissions. However, current widely used emission scenarios and related physical climate projections have no probabilities associated with them, presenting a challenge for…
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Journal Article
Unlocking the Impact of Temperature and Salinity on Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Estuarine Salt Marsh Soils
Abstract Salt marshes hold substantial potential for nature‐based climate solutions; yet their carbon sequestration potential is threatened by greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under global warming and sea‐level rise (SLR). The combined effects of temperature and salinity on soil GHG emissions still…
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Journal Article
Estimates of Future Sea Levels Under Sea‐Level Rise: A Novel Hybrid Block Bootstrapping Approach and Australian Case Study
Abstract Coastal flood events are increasing in both frequency and magnitude with ongoing sea‐level rise. Here we present a new statistical approach to generate future daily maximum water level timeseries and associated annual and daily flood probabilities for Australia. Our method provides several…
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Journal Article
Emerging Importance of Compound Flooding in Future Tropical Cyclone Hazard Profiles
Abstract Accurately assessing tropical cyclone (TC) flood risk requires capturing the dynamic interactions between rainfall‐driven and coastal flood processes. We simulate flooding from over 2,800 synthetic TCs impacting five HUC6 watersheds in eastern North and South Carolina under historical and…
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Journal Article
Climate Change and Disparities in Extreme Heat Exposure for Socially Vulnerable Areas in the Contiguous United States
Abstract Socially vulnerable communities within the contiguous United States (CONUS) face disproportionate heat exposure, yet how these disparities will change under future warming remains unclear. Although socially vulnerable communities already experience higher air temperatures, high‐resolution…
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Journal Article
Rapid Loss of Terrestrial Ecosystem Multifunctionality in China on a Century Scale
Abstract Ecosystem multifunctionality (EMF) is a crucial factor in protecting biodiversity and regulating climate dynamics. However, the global and regional dynamics of EMF are currently limited to field experiments, resulting in an incomplete understanding of the spatial patterns and driving…
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