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npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Scopus
ISSN 2397-3722 · Nature Portfolio · 1,304 articles in the index
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Journal Article
A spectral test of the butterfly effect and physical consistency in the diffusion-based GenCast’s ensembles
Abstract With the rapid development of deep learning weather prediction (DLWP) models like GenCast, rigorous evaluation of their physical consistency is essential. This study investigates the dynamical fidelity of GenCast against ECMWF IFS-HRES and IFS-ENS using comprehensive kinetic energy (KE)…
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Journal Article
A brief history of Asian summer monsoon evolution in the Cenozoic era
Abstract The evolution of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) over geological timescale remains uncertain1–3 despite its fundamental role in shaping regional climate4,5, ecosystems6,7, and civilizations8. Using a series of time-slice simulations with a paleo-climate model, we assess how India–Eurasia…
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Journal Article
Unprecedented recent summer warming and cross-sphere hydrological coupling in Asian Water Towers
Abstract The Asian Water Towers play a crucial role by storing and releasing vast amounts of freshwater, thereby sustaining the base flow of major Asian rivers and water security for billions of people at sub-continent to hemispheric scales. Instrumental records, though spatially and temporally…
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Journal Article
Storm-permitting climate modeling highlights storm frequency’s role in future extreme sea level changes along US East and Gulf coasts
Abstract Storm-induced coastal extreme sea levels (ESLs) pose severe threats to infrastructure, economies, and ecosystems. However, projecting future ESL changes is hindered by the coarse resolution of climate models used in assessment reports, which fail to accurately capture tropical cyclones…
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Journal Article
Precession-driven salinity feedback in the western Pacific warm pool: insights from alkenone hydrogen isotopes over the past 450 kyr
Abstract The Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) acts as Earth’s largest tropical heat reservoir; however, the mechanisms that drive orbital-scale sea surface salinity (SSS) variability remain unresolved, as traditional δ¹⁸O-based proxies conflate regional salinity with global ice-volume effects…
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Journal Article
Bridging idealized and operational models: an explainable AI framework for Earth system emulators
Abstract Computer models are indispensable tools for understanding the Earth system. While high-resolution operational models have achieved many successes, they exhibit persistent biases, particularly in simulating extreme events and statistical distributions. In contrast, coarse-grained idealized…
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Journal Article
Emerging trends in landfalling atmospheric rivers over the South Pacific
Abstract Global climate models project that the South Pacific will be a hotspot for some of the largest atmospheric river (AR) changes. Thus, there is an urgent need to review both historical trends and updated high-resolution climate projections tailored to this region. Here we show that…
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Journal Article
East Asian Meiyu variability reflected in precipitation oxygen isotopes via western Pacific subtropical high
Abstract It remains uncertain whether precipitation oxygen isotopes (δ18O) reliably capture East Asian Meiyu monsoon variability. Analyzing daily δ18O across the Yangtze-Huai River Basin from 28-34°N, we reveal a distinct spatial dichotomy. In the middle and northern Meiyu regions, δ18O robustly…
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Journal Article
ENSO modulated upstream convection as the primary control on interannual δ¹⁸O variability in East Asia
Abstract The mechanisms driving oxygen isotope variations in East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation (δ¹⁸Op) and their proxy archives remain controversial. Here, we use IsoGSM3—an isotope-enabled climate model with moisture-tagging capability and rigorously validated against observations, to…
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Journal Article
An analytical framework reduces cloud feedback uncertainty by linking percentage cloud change to surface ocean warming patterns
Abstract Clouds significantly influence Earth’s radiative balance with complex changes in response to surface warming. The key drivers of the changes are the sea surface temperature (SST) pattern effect that reshapes cloud distributions, and the beta feedback that scales low-level fraction change…
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Journal Article
Aerosolisation of microalgae: unveiling dimethyl-sulfide emissions during bubbling
Abstract Microalgae emit volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that can profoundly impact climate by leading to new particle formation and influencing clouds. Among these VOCs, dimethyl-sulphide (DMS) is of particular interest due to its key role in atmospheric processes. Despite its importance, many…
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Journal Article
Inter-tropical African precipitation regime shifts dominated by tropical easterly jet
Abstract Since the 1990s, inter-tropical Africa (ITA) has experienced consecutive calamitous droughts during the boreal spring. Although the observed precipitation regime changes have been attributed to tropical Indian Ocean-western Pacific warming and/or tropical Pacific La Niña-like cooling, the…
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Journal Article
Local biophysical climate feedback from vegetation responses to lower aerosol pollution
Abstract Aerosols can influence vegetation through multiple processes, yet the resulting biophysical climate feedback from the vegetation response remains poorly understood. Here, using an ensemble of Earth system models and an observation-based empirical model, we show that the vegetation response…
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Journal Article
The interdecadal variations of cross-month correlation feature of the NWPSH
Abstract The Northwest Pacific Subtropical High (NWPSH) presents a notable and even counterintuitive phenomenon: it shows a strong positive correlation between June and August (correlation coefficient: 0.55, significant at the 99.5% confidence level) during 1979–2005, while this correlation weakens…
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Journal Article
Divergent mountain runoff dynamics but declining per capita freshwater availability across the Third Pole by mid-21st century
Abstract The mountainous Third Pole is a critical source of freshwater for water resource management across Asia, yet the historical and future dynamics of per-capita freshwater supply in this region remain poorly constrained by observations from a coherent, pan-regional perspective. Here, we show…
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Journal Article
A structural correction to atmospheric evaporative demand narrows the gap between offline aridity diagnostics and Earth system model projections
Abstract Offline aridity and drought diagnostics typically project widespread terrestrial drying under climate change, whereas fully coupled Earth system models (ESMs) often simulate modest or regionally heterogeneous changes—and in some regions increasing—runoff. This long-standing divergence has…
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Journal Article
Single hemisphere air-sea interaction shapes the South Pacific surface warming and wind change
Abstract The projected increase in the sea surface temperature (SST) into the 21st century exhibits a robust southeastern minimum (SEM) pattern in the subtropical Pacific. Despite the agreement between observations and climate models, this pattern remains poorly addressed, with gaps in the proposed…
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