689 results
Showing 1–20 · 0.61 seconds · RSS
Infectious Disease Modelling
Scopus
ISSN 2468-0427 · KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. · 689 articles in the index
-
Journal Article
Generation time in a discrete epidemic model with asymptomatic carriers: beyond geometric waiting times
We study the random times between successive cases in a transmission chain of infectious diseases with asymptomatic carriers. We derive the probability distribution of this generation time (in days) from a discrete-time epidemic model with variable infectiousness both along elapsed times and across…
-
Journal Article
Role-specific household contact patterns in urban and rural China: Implications for influenza household transmission
Background: Household contact patterns significantly influence the household transmission dynamics of respiratory pathogens. Previous studies have shown ignoring the heterogeneity of household contact patterns can lead to an underestimation of the relative susceptibility and infectivity of children…
-
Journal Article
A vaccination model for COVID-19 with asymptomatic transmission, waning immunity, and outbreak calibration
The COVID-19 pandemic has posed unprecedented challenges to global public health, revealing critical gaps in our understanding of transmission dynamics, particularly the roles of asymptomatic spread and waning immunity. To address these gaps, we develop a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission…
-
Journal Article
Dynamics modelling and control strategies of malaria transmission interruption by antimalarial-treated nets
Malaria is one of the most burdensome vector-borne diseases in tropical and subtropical regions. Probst and Catteruccia, (Nature, 2025) proposed a novel strategy using antimalarial-treated nets (ATNs). These nets provide a physical barrier against mosquito bites while simultaneously delivering…
-
Journal Article
Optimal timing for staged vaccination campaigns: Insights from scenario tree-based stochastic optimization
We develop a mathematical modeling framework to address the challenge in launching an effective staged vaccination campaign during a typical viral infection season to avoid an overwhelmed healthcare system for the entire season. Using the COVID-19 pandemic following its acute phase as a motivating…
-
Journal Article
Systematic prediction of spatiotemporal transmission of potential respiratory pandemics in China
Population movement significantly influences respiratory disease transmission; however, movement restrictions can impose substantial societal burdens. To understand spatiotemporal characteristic of a potential respiratory pandemic in Chinese mainland which could help in precise control, a…
-
Journal Article
A spatio-temporal causal network for multi-scale analysis of infectious respiratory diseases transmission
Understanding the spatio-temporal transmission characteristics of infectious respiratory diseases is crucial for effective control. However, most existing studies rely on correlation analysis, which obscures the true causal pathways and directionality of infectious respiratory disease transmission…
-
Journal Article
Multi-event dynamic capture-recapture model for big data: Estimating undetected COVID-19 cases in British Columbia, Canada
The accurate quantification of the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on both public health and the economy is essential for informed policy-making. However, the true scope of the pandemic remains challenging to ascertain due to undetected cases, particularly when relying on reported cases, which rely…
-
Journal Article
Epidemiological model calibration via graybox Bayesian optimization
In this study, we focus on developing efficient calibration methods via Bayesian decision-making for the family of compartmental epidemiological models. The existing calibration methods usually assume that the compartmental model is cheap in terms of its output and gradient evaluation, which may…
-
Journal Article
A coupled disease-misinformation model of measles transmission in the Canadian context
Infectious disease dynamics are increasingly shaped not only by biological processes but also by the spread of misinformation. This study presents a coupled disease-misinformation model, SMIRK, to evaluate the impact of misinformation on a recent measles outbreak in Canada. The novel model combines…
-
Journal Article
Dengue fever prediction based on meteorological features and deep learning models
The dengue fever epidemic is one of the health priorities of the World Health Organization (WHO), and accurately predicting its epidemiological trends is crucial. Multi source geographic data such as temperature, humidity, and precipitation affect the occurrence and prevalence of dengue fever…
-
Journal Article
Warming temperatures reduce lifespan and vectorial capacity of Anopheles mosquitoes in Ghana
Climate change and variability are altering the ecology of malaria vectors, with implications for disease transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. In this study, we analysed long-term historical temperature, rainfall and relative humidity data across Ghana's climatic zones to evaluate their trends. We…
-
Journal Article
Impact of the first booster vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 in Chile
The present paper proposes a novel methodology for evaluating the impact of a vaccination plan against a transmissible disease. The methodology has two distinct stages. The initial stage comprises a compartmental model that describes the transmission of the disease within the population. This model…
-
Journal Article
Integrating Kolmogorov-Arnold networks with ordinary differential equations for efficient, interpretable, and robust deep learning: Epidemiology of infectious diseases as a case study
This study extends universal differential equation (UDE) frameworks by integrating the Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (KAN) with ordinary differential equations, referred to as KAN-UDE, to achieve efficient and interpretable deep learning. Our case study centers on the epidemiology of emerging…
-
Journal Article
Determining disease attributes from epidemic trajectories
Effective public health decisions require early reliable inference of infectious disease properties. In this paper we assess the ability to infer infectious disease attributes from population-level stochastic epidemic trajectories. In particular, we construct stochastic Kermack-McKendrick model…
-
Journal Article
Study on the resurgence of pertussis based on a stage-structured dynamic model
Although pertussis vaccination has effectively reduced the global incidence rate and mortality, pertussis resurgence has been observed in many countries in recent years. This study aims to untangle the changes in dynamic transmission characteristics before and after pertussis resurgence in…
-
Journal Article
Spatio-temporal forecasting of dengue in the Americas through hybrid mechanistic and data-driven models: Systematic review and meta-analysis
This systematic review and meta-analysis (PROSPERO: CRD420251130769) synthesises 30 dengue modelling studies conducted in the Americas between 2016 and 2025, evaluating the integration of mechanistic and data-driven approaches. We quantified the reliability of diverse modelling frameworks by…
-
Journal Article
Age-structured next generation matrix and R0 calculation for Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP)
Paratuberculosis (Johne's disease), caused by Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP), is known for its age-specific susceptibility, lifelong infection, varied shedding patterns, low diagnostic sensitivity, long latent period, and prolonged environmental persistence, all of which make…
-
Journal Article
Urbanization influences hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome transmission: 34-year evidence from China's national surveillance
Background: Mainland China accounts for over 90 % of the global hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) cases, yet quantitative relationships between climate, urbanization and transmission dynamics remain poorly understood across national scales. Methods: We analyzed 34 years of HFRS…