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Weather and Climate Dynamics
Scopus
ISSN 2698-4016 · Copernicus Publications · 482 artikel di indeks
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Artikel Jurnal Teks lengkap
Linking European droughts to year-round weather regimes
European droughts have far-reaching socio-economic and ecological impacts, yet their prediction remains challenging due to the complex interplay between large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and local thermodynamic processes. This study investigates how persistent North Atlantic weather…
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A new index used to characterise the extent of Antarctic marine coastal winds in climate projections
Antarctic marine coastal near-surface winds play a key role in Southern Ocean circulation. Using the ERA5 reanalysis dataset, this paper develops directional wind constancy as a tool for identifying key features in these winds and their relationship with the mid-latitude westerly jet. In…
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Rossby wave resonance for idealized jets on a beta-plane: towards a better understanding of the meridional wave structure
The paper discusses a novel method to diagnose and investigate Rossby wave resonance along a circumglobal midlatitude jet with particular focus on the meridional wave structure. As a framework, the linearized inviscid barotropic vorticity equation is considered on a zonally periodic beta-plane…
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The tropospheric response to zonally asymmetric momentum torques: implications for the downward response to wave reflection and SSW events
The role of zonal structure in the stratospheric polar vortex for the surface response to weak vortex states and concurrently occurring wave reflection events is isolated using an intermediate-complexity moist general circulation model. Zonally asymmetric wave-1 momentum torques with varying…
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A new look at the jet-storm track relationship in the North Pacific and North Atlantic
The western ocean boundaries of the North Pacific (NP) and North Atlantic (NA) set favourable conditions for upper-level jets and baroclinic weather systems that propagate downstream and form the storm tracks. Despite these similarities between the two ocean basins, distinct forcing mechanisms…
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Projected climate change in Fennoscandia – and its relation to ensemble spread and global trends
The need for information about climate change is great. This information is usually based on climate model data, which often have systematic biases. Furthermore, climate information is based on ensembles of climate models, which raises the question about how such ensembles are affected by the…
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QBOi El Niño Southern Oscillation experiments: assessing relationships between ENSO, MJO, and QBO
This study uses an ensemble of climate model experiments coordinated by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi) to analyze the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the presence of either perpetual El Niño or La Niña sea surface temperatures during boreal winter. In addition to the prescribed…
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Mediterranean Sea heat uptake variability as a precursor to winter precipitation in the Levant
The Eastern Mediterranean is experiencing severe warming and drying, driven by global warming, making seasonal precipitation prediction in the region imperative. Given that the Mediterranean Sea is the primary source of regional moisture and synoptic variability, here we explore the observed…
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Concurrent heat waves and their linkage to large-scale meridional heat transports through planetary-scale waves
We investigate concurrent heatwaves across the Northern Hemisphere through the linkage between extremes in Meridional Heat Transport (MHT) and in hemispheric land surface temperature (LST). MHT provides fundamental insight on how large-scale thermodynamics links to atmospheric large-scale dynamics…
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The impact of Aeolus observations on wind and rainfall predictions
Previous studies showed substantial improvements in upper-level wind and mass field forecasts from assimilating Aeolus wind observations. This study extends those analyses using the improved reprocessed Aeolus dataset (version B16) in experiments with the global ECMWF forecasting system spanning…
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Environmental characteristics associated with the development of deep warm core Mediterranean Cyclones
Cyclonic perturbations in the Mediterranean region sometimes acquire characteristics typical of tropical cyclones, such as a deep inner warm core. In these cases, they become very intense structures that can cause large precipitations and significant damage. In this study, the environmental…
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Topographic effects of Svalbard on warm and moist air intrusions into the Central Arctic
Warm air intrusions (WAIs) along the North Atlantic pathway are key drivers of warm extremes in the central Arctic. The Svalbard archipelago acts as a major topographic barrier in the middle of this gateway, but its role in modulating WAIs and their impacts has not been studied in detail. We…
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The role of the stratospheric state in upward wave flux prior to Sudden Stratospheric Warmings: a SNAPSI analysis
Several studies highlight the relevance of considering polar winter stratospheric information such as the occurrence of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) for skillful Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) surface climate predictions. However, current S2S forecast systems can only predict these events…
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The role of atmospheric circulation changes in Western European warm season heat extremes
Climate change has led to an intensification of summer heat extremes, with especially pronounced warming over Western Europe. Here, the maximum and mean of the daily maximum summer temperatures have warmed 3.3 [2.5–4.2] and 2.4 [1.8–3.1] times faster than global mean temperatures. A large part of…
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Detection and global climatology of two types of spatio-temporal clustering of extratropical cyclones
The swift succession of multiple extratropical cyclones during a short period of time is often associated with weather extremes and characterised by a strong atmospheric jet and enhanced baroclinicity. While several diagnostics exist to detect cyclone clustering, they mostly focus on regional…
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Global characterisation of the vertical temperature anomaly structure of heat extremes over land in ERA5
The formation of surface heat extremes is usually described in terms of surface processes and upper-level dynamics. However, their full vertical temperature profile contains additional essential information about the involved processes. So far, it is an open question whether heat extremes are…
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Mediterranean cyclones from pre-industrial to future climate: changes in extreme wind, precipitation and compound precipitation–wind events
The Mediterranean is a major extratropical cyclone hotspot and heavily impacted by climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of future climate change with respect to pre-industrial conditions on extreme cyclones (EXCs) which induce extreme wind, precipitation and…
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Assessing the plausibility of unprecedented events: a process-based approach applied to month-long heatwaves in Western Europe
Climate model based storylines of individual climate and weather events are increasingly used to quantify impacts, vulnerability, or stress-test infrastructure to inform adaptation decisions. Here, we present an approach to test the plausibility of unprecedented climate storylines based on physical…
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Dynamics of the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone: insights from potential vorticity tendency diagnostics
The Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone (ASMA), the dominant circulation in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) during the boreal summer, undergoes pronounced spatio-temporal variability. While the climatological mean state of the ASMA is well documented, the mechanisms governing its…
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Subseasonal predictability and Rossby wave dynamics of blocking high during transitional seasons: insights from three successive events in May–June 2023
Extended-range prediction during the transitional seasons remains particularly challenging due to the volatile large-scale circulation background. This study investigates the dynamical linkages, Rossby wave characteristics, and subseasonal predictability of three successive atmospheric blocking…