35 hasil untuk "Neil M. Ferguson"
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Artikel Jurnal Teks lengkap
Evaluating the Adequacy of Gravity Models as a Description of Human Mobility for Epidemic Modelling
Gravity models have a long history of use in describing and forecasting the movements of people as well as goods and services, making them a natural basis for disease transmission rates over distance. In agent-based micro-simulations, gravity models can be directly used to represent movement of…
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Feature Selection Methods for Identifying Genetic Determinants of Host Species in RNA Viruses
Despite environmental, social and ecological dependencies, emergence of zoonotic viruses in human populations is clearly also affected by genetic factors which determine cross-species transmission potential. RNA viruses pose an interesting case study given their mutation rates are orders of…
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Antigenic Diversity, Transmission Mechanisms, and the Evolution of Pathogens
Pathogens have evolved diverse strategies to maximize their transmission fitness. Here we investigate these strategies for directly transmitted pathogens using mathematical models of disease pathogenesis and transmission, modeling fitness as a function of within- and between-host pathogen dynamics…
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Targeting vaccinations for the licensed dengue vaccine: Considerations for serosurvey design
Background: The CYD-TDV vaccine was unusual in that the recommended target population for vaccination was originally defined not only by age, but also by transmission setting as defined by seroprevalence. WHO originally recommended countries consider vaccination against dengue with CYD-TDV vaccine…
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Deriving fine-scale models of human mobility from aggregated origin-destination flow data
The spatial dynamics of epidemics are fundamentally affected by patterns of human mobility. Mobile phone call detail records (CDRs) are a rich source of mobility data, and allow semi-mechanistic models of movement to be parameterised even for resource-poor settings. While the gravity model…
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Transmission Parameters of the 2001 Foot and Mouth Epidemic in Great Britain
Despite intensive ongoing research, key aspects of the spatial-temporal evolution of the 2001 foot and mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in Great Britain (GB) remain unexplained. Here we develop a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for estimating epidemiological parameters of the 2001 outbreak for a…
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A Many-Body Field Theory Approach to Stochastic Models in Population Biology
Background: Many models used in theoretical ecology, or mathematical epidemiology are stochastic, and may also be spatially-explicit. Techniques from quantum field theory have been used before in reaction-diffusion systems, principally to investigate their critical behavior. Here we argue that they…
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Estimating Air Temperature and Its Influence on Malaria Transmission across Africa
Malaria transmission is strongly influenced by climatic conditions which determine the abundance and seasonal dynamics of the Anopheles vector. In particular, water temperature influences larval development rates whereas air temperature determines adult longevity as well as the rate of parasite…
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Determinants of the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic in Europe: Implications for Real-Time Modelling
Influenza pandemics in the last century were characterized by successive waves and differences in impact and timing between different regions, for reasons not clearly understood. The 2009 H1N1 pandemic showed rapid global spread, but with substantial heterogeneity in timing within each hemisphere…
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Modelling the Impact of Antiretroviral Use in Resource-Poor Settings
Background: The anticipated scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in high-prevalence, resource-constrained settings requires operational research to guide policy on the design of treatment programmes. Mathematical models can explore the potential impacts of various treatment strategies…
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Artikel Jurnal Teks lengkap
Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity from Case-Notification Data from Multiple Countries
Background: Despite being the most widely distributed mosquito-borne viral infection, estimates of dengue transmission intensity and associated burden remain ambiguous. With advances in the development of novel control measures, obtaining robust estimates of average dengue transmission intensity is…
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Artikel Jurnal Teks lengkap
Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity from Sero-Prevalence Surveys in Multiple Countries
Background: Estimates of dengue transmission intensity remain ambiguous. Since the majority of infections are asymptomatic, surveillance systems substantially underestimate true rates of infection. With advances in the development of novel control measures, obtaining robust estimates of average…
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Model-Based Comprehensive Analysis of School Closure Policies for Mitigating Influenza Epidemics and Pandemics
School closure policies are among the non-pharmaceutical measures taken into consideration to mitigate influenza epidemics and pandemics spread. However, a systematic review of the effectiveness of alternative closure policies has yet to emerge. Here we perform a model-based analysis of four types…
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Seasonal and inter-annual drivers of yellow fever transmission in South America
In the last 20 years yellow fever (YF) has seen dramatic changes to its incidence and geographic extent, with the largest outbreaks in South America since 1940 occurring in the previously unaffected South-East Atlantic coast of Brazil in 2016–2019. While habitat fragmentation and land-cover have…
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Using Routine Surveillance Data to Estimate the Epidemic Potential of Emerging Zoonoses: Application to the Emergence of US Swine Origin Influenza A H3N2v Virus
Using a novel method to assess the risks of outbreaks and epidemics, Simon Cauchemez and colleagues provide insight into a simple tool that allows for more robust monitoring of the epidemic potential of zoonoses. Background: Prior to emergence in human populations, zoonoses such as SARS cause…
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The impact of health inequity on spatial variation of COVID-19 transmission in England
Considerable spatial heterogeneity has been observed in COVID-19 transmission across administrative areas of England throughout the pandemic. This study investigates what drives these differences. We constructed a probabilistic case count model for 306 administrative areas of England across 95…
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Evaluating the role of observational uncertainty in climate impact assessments: Temperature-driven yellow fever risk in South America
Global gridded temperature data sets (GGTDs) differ in data sources, quality control, generation methods, and spatial-temporal resolution, introducing observational uncertainty. This uncertainty is critical not only for studies on current climate conditions but also for future climate change…
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Estimating the Location and Spatial Extent of a Covert Anthrax Release
Rapidly identifying the features of a covert release of an agent such as anthrax could help to inform the planning of public health mitigation strategies. Previous studies have sought to estimate the time and size of a bioterror attack based on the symptomatic onset dates of early cases. We extend…
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A Change in Vaccine Efficacy and Duration of Protection Explains Recent Rises in Pertussis Incidence in the United States
Over the past ten years the incidence of pertussis in the United States (U.S.) has risen steadily, with 2012 seeing the highest case number since 1955. There has also been a shift over the same time period in the age group reporting the largest number of cases (aside from infants), from adolescents…
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Artikel Jurnal Teks lengkap
The interaction of disease transmission, mortality, and economic output over the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic
Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused over 7.02 million deaths as of January 2024 and profoundly affected most countries’ Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Here, we study the interaction of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, mortality, and economic output between January 2020 and December 2022 across 25…